Breaking Down the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery Odds and What They Mean for Teams

I still remember sitting in my living room watching the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery unfold, that familiar mix of anticipation and anxiety hanging in the air. As someone who's analyzed basketball operations for over a decade, I've come to view the lottery not just as a televised event, but as a pivotal moment that can alter franchise trajectories for years to come. The Phoenix Suns entered that night with the best odds at 25% for the top pick, while my hometown team, the Memphis Grizzlies, sat at about 19% for a top-three selection. These percentages might seem like dry statistics, but they represent hope—the kind of hope that reminds me of Cone's reaction after his first Asia Cup victory as coach, that profound "more than a sigh of relief" feeling that comes when potential finally translates into tangible success.

The mathematical intricacies of the lottery system fascinate me, particularly how it balances fairness with competitive equity. That year, the bottom three teams—Suns, Grizzlies, and Mavericks—all had relatively similar odds for the first pick at 25%, 19.9%, and 13.8% respectively. What many casual fans don't realize is how dramatically those probabilities drop off after the top few spots. The seventh-worst team, Sacramento in this case, had just a 6% chance at the top selection. I've always believed this steep decline creates an interesting strategic dilemma for front offices: do you fully embrace the tanking strategy, or try to maintain some competitive integrity while still positioning yourself favorably? My perspective has evolved over the years—I now lean toward organic development rather than outright tanking, though I understand why teams facing prolonged irrelevance feel compelled to chase those premium odds.

When the actual results unfolded, we witnessed one of those beautiful lottery surprises that makes the system simultaneously thrilling and frustrating. The Sacramento Kings, with their mere 6% chance, jumped up to secure the second overall pick, while Phoenix still landed their coveted first selection despite not having the mathematical advantage of previous years' worst teams. This kind of outcome demonstrates why I both love and question the current system. The randomness can reward franchises that might not be the absolute worst, creating those Cinderella stories we enjoy, while sometimes leaving the truly destitute teams with less than they'd hoped for. I've spoken with numerous executives who describe the lottery preparation process as equal parts analytics and superstition—they'll have complex models running simultaneously with lucky charms in their pockets.

Looking specifically at team implications, the 2018 lottery particularly interested me because of how it set up contrasting rebuilding timelines. Phoenix securing Deandre Ayton provided them with the foundational big man they desperately needed, while Sacramento's unexpected jump gave them Marvin Bagley III—a pick that, in my opinion, hasn't aged particularly well compared to some alternatives available. What fascinates me in retrospect is how teams like Atlanta, who landed the third pick with just 10% odds, managed to leverage their position into long-term assets through the Luka Doncic trade. This exemplifies the kind of creative team building I admire far more than simply relying on lottery luck.

The emotional component of the lottery often gets overlooked in analytical discussions. Having attended several lottery events, I can attest to the palpable tension in the room when those envelopes are opened. For struggling franchises and their fans, this moment represents that "more than a sigh of relief" feeling Cone described—a tangible step toward relevance after seasons of frustration. I've seen grown executives literally leap from their chairs when their team's logo appears higher than expected. This human element is what keeps me engaged with the process year after year, despite my criticisms of its imperfections.

As I reflect on the 2018 class now with several seasons of hindsight, what strikes me is how the lottery outcomes both helped and hindered various franchises. Phoenix eventually built their current contender around that Ayton selection, while Sacramento's Bagley choice arguably delayed their progress toward respectability. The Hawks' decision to trade Doncic for Trae Young created one of the most debated transactions in recent memory—personally, I think both franchises benefited, which is rare in these scenarios. The Grizzlies, despite not moving up, still landed Jaren Jackson Jr. with the fourth pick, demonstrating that smart evaluation can yield franchise cornerstones even without lottery luck.

The broader conversation about lottery reform continues to intrigue me, especially as the league tweaks the odds slightly to discourage outright tanking. While I appreciate the intention, I'm skeptical that minor probability adjustments will fundamentally change team behavior. In my ideal system, we'd see even flatter odds among the bottom teams combined with a tournament format for non-playoff teams—but I recognize this might reduce the drama that makes the lottery such compelling television. What remains undeniable is that the lottery represents one of the most significant annual events for rebuilding franchises, creating moments of hope that can define futures. Just as Cone's first victory signaled a turning point, so too does landing that transformative prospect—whether expected or completely surprising—herald new beginnings for NBA franchises and their long-suffering fans.