Who Will Win the NBA Finals: Suns vs Bucks Game Analysis and Predictions

I remember watching that TNT broadcast like it was yesterday—the tension was absolutely palpable. When the final buzzer sounded with an 87-85 scoreline, giving one team a 2-1 series advantage, you could feel the momentum shift right through the screen. That’s the kind of game that defines a finals series, and as someone who’s followed the NBA for over a decade, I can tell you—these moments often foreshadow what’s coming next. So, let’s dive into this Suns vs. Bucks matchup and explore who I believe will ultimately lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Looking back at that pivotal Game 3, the 87-85 final wasn’t just a close score—it was a defensive masterclass. Both teams shot under 43% from the field, and the intensity on every possession was off the charts. I’ve always believed defense wins championships, and in this series, it’s clear both the Suns and Bucks have brought their A-game on that end. For the Suns, their half-court execution has been impressive, but in that low-scoring affair, they struggled to find easy baskets. Chris Paul, as brilliant as he is, seemed a step slower against Jrue Holiday’s relentless pressure. On the other hand, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s presence in the paint has been monumental—he altered at least five shots in that game alone, and his ability to protect the rim gives Milwaukee a clear edge in physicality. Statistically, the Bucks outrebounded the Suns by 8 in that contest, and if that trend continues, it could be the difference-maker.

Offensively, the Suns rely heavily on their backcourt duo. Devin Booker is a scoring machine—he dropped 29 points in Game 2—but in that 87-85 grind, he went just 8-for-22 from the field. That’s where my concern lies: when the game slows down, Phoenix can become too predictable. I’ve seen this happen in past finals; teams with one primary scorer often falter under finals pressure. Meanwhile, the Bucks have more versatility. Khris Middleton, despite his inconsistencies, can erupt for 30 points on any given night, and Bobby Portis provided a crucial 11 points off the bench in Game 3. From my perspective, Milwaukee’s depth is slightly superior, and in a long series, that matters. Remember, the team that won that 87-85 battle didn’t just rely on stars—role players stepped up in clutch moments.

Let’s talk about coaching, because it’s an area where I think Monty Williams has the edge in experience, but Mike Budenholzer’s adjustments in Game 3 were spot-on. The Bucks started switching more on pick-and-rolls, forcing the Suns into isolation plays that disrupted their rhythm. I’ve always admired coaches who adapt mid-series, and Budenholzer’s decision to play Giannis 38 minutes that night—up from his regular season average—showed he’s willing to throw conventional wisdom out the window. On the flip side, the Suns’ ball movement, which averaged 28 assists per game in the regular season, dropped to just 19 in that loss. If Phoenix can’t get their offense flowing again, they’ll struggle to keep up.

Now, for my prediction—and I’ll be honest, I’m leaning toward the Bucks. That 87-85 victory wasn’t just a win; it was a statement. Momentum in the finals is huge, and with a 2-1 lead, Milwaukee has the psychological advantage. Giannis is playing like a man possessed, averaging 32 points and 13 rebounds in the series, and I think his dominance inside will overwhelm the Suns’ frontcourt over seven games. Plus, the Bucks’ home-court energy has been electric—they’ve won 12 of their last 14 home games, including that crucial Game 3. For the Suns to bounce back, they’ll need someone like Deandre Ayton to step up big time, but I’m not sure he can consistently outperform Giannis. So, here’s my take: the Bucks in six. They’ve got the defense, the star power, and now the series lead. But hey, that’s the beauty of the NBA finals—anything can happen, and I’ll be glued to every second of it.